ACCA report shows continued business optimism

Business

2 Days Ago

While US President Trump’s tariffs may continue to have a major impact on trade flows, business leaders remain relatively upbeat about global trade prospects for their companies.

During the most turbulent period for global trade in decades, business leaders and finance professionals were surveyed and interviewed by ACCA for a major report titled, The Outlook for Global Trade: Perspectives from Business Leaders.

While 85 per cent of respondents were concerned about the impacts of tariffs on their organisations, the results show company bosses were surprisingly positive about the future.

The survey found optimistic views, with 56 per cent of respondents expecting their organisations to increase their amount of global trade “significantly” or “somewhat” in the next three to five years.

While less optimistically, 23 per cent expected trade to decrease “somewhat” or “significantly.”

A majority of C-suite executives were even more positive about the future, with 38 per cent and 29 per cent of respondents respectively expecting their firm’s amount of global trade to increase “significantly” or “somewhat.”

Jonathan Ashworth, chief economist at ACCA, said: “2025 has been a monumental year for international trade, with the US raising its import tariffs to their highest level since the 1930s.

“The global economy has so far proved more resilient than expected to the disruptions in global trade, but the risk is for some slowing over the coming quarters.

“Nevertheless, the survey results suggest that business leaders appear relatively optimistic about their enterprises’ medium-term trade prospects and they are overwhelmingly positive about the benefits of an open global trading system.”

Ashworth added, “From our own interviews with business leaders and policy experts, it seems that they are not expecting an outright fall in global trade. However, rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions were clearly seen as important headwinds for its future growth.

“Rising tariffs were not viewed as the only friction in international trade; sanctions were also cited as a key issue.”

Perhaps it was not surprising that geopolitical tensions, international or civil conflicts/wars and protectionist policies in advanced economies were viewed as the top three risks.

Business leaders were equally clear on the top three opportunities as well, which may in part explain their optimism for the future.

Firmly in first place, cited by half of all respondents, was the use of technology (such as AI) to help facilitate global trade. This was followed by diversifying production, investment or location of suppliers and gaining access to new technologies.

The major changes in US trade policy could have profound impacts on future global trade patterns and flows.

The survey revealed that 60 per cent of organisations have already moved the location of some of their production, investment or suppliers in recent years, and 61 per cent say they are likely to do so in the next few years.

The research also flagged another danger: economists warn that a less open and more fragmented global trading system is likely to push up prices, and this was confirmed by the survey.

Around 35 per cent of respondents report that their organisation’s costs are likely to increase by more than ten per cent due to changes in global trade in the coming years, while 46 per cent expect them to increase by up to ten per cent.

According to the report, 11 per cent expect them to stay the same, while just six per cent expect them to decrease.