International Trade Expected to Grow 2.5%: DHL

Despite higher US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, international trade is proving more resilient than expected, reported DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, developed in partnership with NYU Stern School of Business. The report estimates that world trade volumes are expected to grow 2.5% annually through 2029, matching the pace of the previous decade and maintaining record levels of globalization.

The analysis, based on more than 20 million data points from over 25 sources, provides the first systematic assessment of how global trade and investment are responding to shifts in US trade policy during President Trump’s second term. 

“Despite all the headwinds, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker highlights the enduring strength of world trade,” said John Pearson, CEO, DHL Express. “Trade barriers do not serve the world’s best interests, but we should never underestimate the ingenuity of buyers and sellers who want to do business with one another.”

Before the latest wave of tariff increases in early 2025, global trade volumes were forecast to grow at 3.1% annually from 2025 to 2029. That figure has since been revised down to 2.5%. North America saw the sharpest downgrade, from 2.7% to 1.5%, while projections for Latin America, the Middle East, and North Africa were upgraded due to lower US tariff exposure and rising oil exports.

Even as US tariffs slow growth, global trade is not expected to contract. Only 13% of the world’s imports were destined for the United States in 2024, while just 9% of exports originated there. Most countries have refrained from following Washington’s broad tariff hikes.

The first half of 2025 saw international trade grow faster than in any comparable period since 2010, excluding the post-pandemic rebound. US imports surged as buyers rushed orders ahead of tariff increases, while China redirected exports toward ASEAN nations, Africa, and the EU. Even after this temporary surge subsided, trade volumes remained above 2024 levels.

Investment data from early 2025 also reflects steady global engagement. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions held firm, though smaller international investments slowed amid uncertainty.

“The trends in trade and international business investment this year do not support the notion that globalization is in retreat,” said Steven Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization, NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “Companies are managing risks and opportunities in a connected world rather than retreating within borders.”

No Major Geopolitical Fragmentation

Despite the highest number of active global conflicts since World War II, DHL’s analysis finds no major split of the world economy into opposing geopolitical blocs. While US-China trade ties continue to weaken and Russia remains isolated from Western economies, most trade relationships have not realigned along political lines.

The report shows that global trade is not becoming more regional. The average distance goods traveled in early 2025 reached a new record of 5,000km, while intra-regional trade fell to a historic low of 51%. The report’s broader globalization index, measuring flows of trade, capital, information, and people, remains at 25%, near its all-time high set in 2022.

About DHL Global Connectedness Tracker 

The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker is a concise report and interactive website that provides regular updates on globalization and global trade. It complements the renowned DHL Global Connectedness Report, published regularly since 2011. Drawn from more than 25 public, private, and academic sources, the Tracker analyzes more than 20 million data points on international flows of trade, capital, information, and people. It includes interactive online charts that make it easy for users to explore trends by region, geopolitical alignment, and for individual countries. It also supports simple data and chart downloads for offline use. The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker was commissioned by DHL and written by Altman and Caroline Bastian of NYU’s Stern School of Business.